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Modelling probability of SME dafaulting loan payments ab 39.9 EURO
The collapse of the communist regimes in Central and Eastern Europe heralded the beginning of an economic transition from central planning to market economies. The subsequent period was marked by malfunctioning of these countries' social sectors, including their health care systems, raising serious issues of equity. This book examines the impact of the transition period and the introduction of social insurance on equity in health care provision in Bulgaria. Equity in health care is investigated with respect to function - i.e. financing and delivery - and outcomes - i.e. health status, income inequality and poverty. The methodology provides new ways of modelling health care financing and delivery. The book concludes that social insurance does not provide a uniform means of improving equity and that the root cause of the problem lies in the large proportion of out-of-pocket payments and the rather limited size of the health insurance sector. The data suggests that there are differences between socio-economic groups as regards their likelihood to seek treatment for their ill health, which result in differences in their health status.
Exchange rates and other kinds of traded financial functions such as interest rates, stock prices are prone to constant variability. This variability influences the flow of goods, services, and capital in a country, and exerts strong pressure on the balance of payments, inflation and other macroeconomic variables. Particularly, the exchange rate of Naira in relation to many other currencies of the world fluctuate such that their returns over different periods of time are significantly volatile and difficult to forecast. This problem of exchange rate variability have become too disturbing, thus the need to model this fluctuation. The empirical evidence provided in this study uses ARCH and GARCH models for modelling this variability in rate as they are found to capture the 'stylised facts' of financial returns such as: leptokurtosis, volatility clustering, intermittency, fat tails, leverage effect etc. As such, this book comes handy as it could be employed in assessing the condition of the financial markets for making decisions by investors, speculators, investment managers and financial regulators, both in a developed and a developing economy.